Friday, October 5, 2012

6 Month Economic Forecast

I've done the accounting for our small firm for nigh on these twenty-three years. One of the interesting things is that we seem to reflect economic trends about four to six months ahead of the big business reports that show up in the newspaper.

If we're rolling in business and have built up a good cash reserve, months later the government is reporting a banner year for business and employment. If we're scraping for business, then about six months later we read a doom-and-gloom report from the Wall Street Journal.  I am not accounting minded and so even noticing this trend means it has to have been borne out repeatedly.

Suddenly, and I mean within the past month, almost none of our regular clients are paying their bills on time. There are always some people who pay late and some who pay on time. Like every business, we count on the "on time" customers to cover the ones who are slow. But now ...practically everyone is running into the 60-90 day overdue slot on all their bills. And my statements are being ignored ... I have  to call and put people on the spot to get those 60 days bills paid, which is also not usual. I've never experienced anything so sudden from so many at once.

Tom began checking around and found out we're not the only ones. There's a big slow down from everyone.

I'm don't keep up with any political economic plans or forecasts. We just keep working to pay the bills. But I'll tell you this from a purely practical standpoint ... whatever's being done now -- it ain't workin'.


  1. Ya think? Your experience is much more accurate than all the headlines and pronouncements from the 'experts'.

  2. I think your experience is right on. They are calling for a hard year next year, but it sounds like from your forecasting it might be even worse that bad. Lord help us. Pray that wse have a new administration.

  3. Eek. Not what I wanted to hear.

  4. I think, no matter who wins the election, it will be hard. Economies do not turn around quickly. I appreciate you sharing this news with us, Happy.